"If I'd ran a label, I'd be terrified." Moby[78]

In the Internet community there is barely any doubt that the major companies have to compete in terms of the World Wide Web. Online shopping solutions like the "Madison"-project are not going to work, since they "don't satisfy the needs of the consumers. [...] If the music industry is going to come to the Internet, it has to play by the rules of the Internet,"[79] comments Steven Grady, vice president of corporate communications for GoodNoise.com. Michael Robertson, founder of MP3.com, adds: "The Net has made consumers change. The days of forcing consumers to adopt a format or system are over."[80]

Robertson and Grady draw a picture of a powerful Internet community with independent and individual users, which can overcome in the end companies' strategies as in the case of free software like Linux. "What you're competing against is [a] free product, and that won't go away," Grady says directed to the major labels. "[...] if you try to force something that has attributes they don't want, it won't be successful." [81]

Even worse, if the record labels don't put the consumer first in their architecture plans, piracy will only increase and the industry could ultimately lose out on new business opportunities on the Web.[82]

The SDMI solution is still seen by the music business as a possible way to win against MP3. The core factors will be the availability of material for the formats and the ease of use for a mass audience. With the artists known through other media and financial power of global players the major labels might be able to provide with SDMI a userfriendly solution.

Even Grady believes that the consumer will not wilfully violate copyrights, if it is easy enough to get music for a reasonable price: "Why should you search for hours on the net for a song, when you can download it for a fair price (at GoodNoise.com generally $0,99) just nearby?"[83]

There are other analysts that do not give SDMI as a secure technology a good chance to gain the market. One factor is time. David Weekly predicts that the "SDMI is going to fail [...] [because] it will not be here fast enough."[84] - "Soon you'll see a marketplace with 500,000 independent labels,"[85] says Chuck D., frontman of the American Rap-band Public Enemy. And again, Grady comments: "There is only one player right now, and it's MP3."[86]

Another factor is the impossibility of finding an indefinitely secure technique to prevent copying. There have always been hackers that are able to circumvent protections; "[...] the software industry learned this lesson 15 years ago the hard way."[87] David Weekly even presents the principle way to hack music on the computer: "When a computer program, say RealPlayer or WinAMP, wants to play some music for the user, they have to send that data in raw form to the sound card. It is a trivial manner to write a piece of software that pretends that it is a sound card."[88]

A third factor is the anarchistic and international structure of the Net that will not allow more control on the user. John C. Dvorak states: "The trading of MP3s is unstoppable. The laws against it will do nothing."[89] William W. Riggs agrees: "Because of the ease of transfer and high quality there is an unstoppable black market for the product."[90]

So what will be the outcome of the conflict, if MP3 is going to win the scene? MP3 is "the biggest thing to happen in the business in about 40 years,"[91] says Paul Vidich, senior vicepresident of strategic planning for Warner Music Group. After the crisis in the fifties the major labels could secure their market position through controlling new technology, like the development of the CD and the suppressing of the DAT, and the agreement reached in the case of blank audio tapes.

But the Internet poses new prerequisites and possibilities for the whole market. In the extremest case the commercial use of music would be replaced by an open structure of audience-close artists. For John C. Dvorak, the collapse of the music business is already programmed: "The MP3 format and the trading of music on the Internet will destroy the music industry within the next two years."[92]

There can be doubts on this, since the societies we live in base on market economy and capitalist structures. "You'll see a rush of artists abondoning labels and releasing their music directly over the Net. But then they'll come back when they realize they're not making any money. This will change many aspects of the music industry, but it'll sort itself out, the way these changes always do,"[93] comments Ahmet Ertegun, cochair and co-CEO of Atlantic Group.

Adel Dahdal, responsible for the Internet presence of the Swedish label JimmyFun, foresees a change in the role of the music labels. He projects they will more and more be important for the marketing and promotion of the music, but will lose field in the the recording and distribution sector. With cheap recording technology and the digital distribution possibilities of the Internet, more money will go to the artists, and the prices of the records can go down[94] - it will be hard to explain to the consumers, why they should pay the same price for a stream of bits as for a physical carrier with package and booklet.

The major labels might deal with the situation like they did in the twenties, when the radio threatened their shares, and in the late fifties, when TV brought a crisis over the music industry: with financial power in the backhand the corporations will buy the new competitors on the market and form a new controlled oligopoly. The only question is, if this is possible with a dynamic and self-organized medium like the Internet. As Chuck D., frontman of Public Enemy, puts it: "[...] the majors can co-opt all they want, but it's not going to stop the average person from getting into the game."[95]

[part 5: conclusion]